ondecember30,2020,theleadersofchinaandtheeujointlyannouncedthecompletionoftheeu-chinacomprehensiveagreementoninvestment,whichisaframeworkagreementdesignedtoreplacetheexistingbilateralinvestmenttreatiesbetweenchinaandeumemberstatesandbuildunitychina-eubilateralinvestmentsystem.

　　thisnegotiationhasgonethrough35roundsofnegotiationsandlastedformorethan7years.thenegotiationwasoncestalledandacceleratedinthepastoneandahalfyears.thenegotiationwasfinallycompletedattheendof2020,whichisalsoaftertheregionalcomprehensiveeconomicpartnershipagreement(rcep).,chinahascompletedanothermajoropening-upmeasure,whichisanothersignificantvictoryofmultilateralisminthecourseofyearsofanti-globalization.

　　so,willthecompletionofthe"china-euinvestmentagreement"negotiationshaveanimpactonthestainlesssteelindustry?

　　1.ifthechina-euinvestmentagreementisreached,willtheeustillhavetariffbarrierstochina?

　　inrecentyears,duetotheeu'scontinuedanti-dumpingofstainlesssteelexportsfrommainlandchina,theeucurrentlyimposesataxrateofmorethan20%onstainlesssteelfrommainlandchina.then,ifthechina-euinvestmentagreementisreached,willtheeustillhavetariffbarriersagainstchina?

　　thefirstthingtobeclearisthatthechina-euinvestmentagreementdoesnotinvolvetariffissues.secondly,itisassumedthatthe"china-europeinvestmentagreement"hascertainbenefitsforstainlesssteelexports,mainlyrelatedtostainlesssteelproducts,suchashouseholdappliances.however,afterthepreliminarynegotiationsarecompleted,theagreementneedstobefurthertransformedintolegalprovisions,whichcanonlycomeintoforceafterapprovalbytheeuropeanparliament.theprocessisexpectedtostartinthesecondhalfof2021.

　　2.fromtheperspectiveofeuropeanopenareas,whatimpactdoesthe"china-euinvestmentagreement"haveonchinesestainlesssteelcompaniesgoingglobal?

　　accordingtorelevantinformation,thechina-euinvestmentagreementwilllockintheexistingchineseinvestmentmarketaccessrightsineurope,whileensuringtheopeningofsensitiveareassuchasenergy,agriculture,fishery,audio-visual,andpublicservicesineurope.inaddition,accordingtothe"generalagreementontradeinservices"(gats),theeuwillopenuptheserviceindustrytoalargeextent.

　　fromchina'sstandpoint,theeuropeanopenfieldprovideschineseinvestorswithgreateropportunitiestoentertheeuenergywholesaleandretailmarket,renewableenergymarketandotherfields,andpromotethedevelopmentofchina'snewenergy,automobileandotherrelatedindustries.forchineseinvestors,theagreementalsomeansthattherearemorepotentialinvestmentopportunitiesintheeu,includingchina'scompetitiveconstructionindustry,telecommunicationsindustry,etc.,whichmaystimulatedomesticdemandforstainlesssteel.

　　however,fromtheperspectiveofstainlesssteelcompanies,thepossibilityofdomesticstainlesssteelplantsgoingoutandestablishingplantsintheeuisslim.duetotherelativelylargeaccumulationofscrapsteelineurope,chinesestainlesssteelmillsmayenjoysomeadvantagesinthecostofstainlesssteelsmeltingwhentheygooutandinvestinconstruction.however,allstainlesssteelmillsineuropecurrentlyuseelectricfurnacesforproduction.ifyougotoeuropetobuildaplant,theoverallcostistoohigh.secondly,fromademandperspective,europeanstainlesssteelproductionhasbeendecliningyearbyyear.inaddition,duetotheimpactofthenewcrownepidemic,theeuropeaneconomyhasfallenintoadownturn,andthedemandsidehasremainedweak.therefore,thepossibilityofdomesticstainlesssteelplantsgoingtoeuropetobuildfactoriesgenerallydoesnotexist.

　　3.fromtheperspectiveofchina'sopenfields,whatimpactdoesthe"china-euinvestmentagreement"haveondomesticstainlesssteelcompanies?

　　duringthenegotiations,theareasthatchinapromisedtofurtheropenincludemanufacturing,automobiles,financialservices,healthcare,communications/cloudservices,computerservices,internationalshipping,airtransportation,businessservices,environmentalservices,etc.atpresent,abouthalfofeu'sdirectinvestmentinchinaisconcentratedinthemanufacturingsector,suchastransportationandtelecommunicationsequipment,chemicals,healthequipment,andsoon.intheautomotivesector,chinaagreedtograduallycanceltherequirementsforjointventuresandpromisedmarketaccessfornewenergyvehicles.inaddition,chinaagreedtoabolishjointventurerequirementsforcertainindustriesinthefinancialservicesandhealthcaresectors.

　　fromthestandpointoftheeuropeanunion,theeuropeanunionhasnewopportunitiesinchina’sautomotive,consumerproducts,biomedicine,financialservices,andmedicalandhealthsectors,butmorelikelyitistheoutputinthetechnicalfield,whichhasabasicimpactontheproductionofthestainlesssteelindustry.no.

　　insummary,ingeneral,the"china-europeinvestmentagreement"doesnothaveanypositiveimpactonstainlesssteelandstainlesssteelcompaniesthemselves,butitmaybepositivefortheexportofstainlesssteelproducts.

　　中歐(ōu)投資協定(dìng)，對不鏽(xiù)鋼行業(yè)影響幾何

　　2020年12月(yuè)30日，中歐領(lǐng)導人(rén)共同(tóng)宣(xuān)布(bù)完成中歐(ōu)全(quán)面(miàn)投資協議(yì)(eu-chinacomprehensiveagreementoninvestment），這是一個框(kuàng)架協議，旨在(zài)取代(dài)中(zhōng)國和歐(ōu)盟成員國(guó)現有的雙(shuāng)邊投資條(tiáo)約，構(gòu)建統一的中歐(ōu)雙邊(biān)投資(zī)制度。

　　這一談判(pàn)經曆(lì)了(le)35輪(lún)磋商(shāng)，前後持續超過7年，談判(pàn)曾一度(dù)停滞(zhì)，近一年半(bàn)内有所加快，終(zhōng)于在(zài)2020年(nián)年(nián)底完(wán)成談(tán)判(pàn)，這也是(shì)繼區域全面經(jīng)濟夥伴(bàn)關系協(xié)定（rcep）之(zhī)後，中國完(wán)成的另一個重(zhòng)大對外開放舉措，也(yě)是在多年(nián)的逆全球化進程中，多邊主義(yì)取得的又(yòu)一次意義重(zhòng)大的勝(shèng)利。

　　那麼，“中歐投資協(xié)定”談判的(de)完成，對不(bú)鏽鋼(gāng)行業會有(yǒu)影響(xiǎng)嗎？

　　一(yī)、如果“中歐(ōu)投資協定”達成，歐盟對中(zhōng)國還會有關稅壁壘(lěi)麼？

　　近年來，由于歐盟(méng)對中國大(dà)陸的不鏽(xiù)鋼出(chū)口(kǒu)持(chí)續的反傾(qīng)銷，目(mù)前歐(ōu)盟對(duì)中國大(dà)陸(lù)不鏽鋼的征收稅率(lǜ)高達20%以上，那麼(me)，如果“中歐(ōu)投資協定(dìng)”達成，歐(ōu)盟(méng)對中國還(hái)會有關稅(shuì)壁壘麼？

　　首(shǒu)先需(xū)要明确的(de)是，“中歐(ōu)投資協(xié)定”并不(bú)涉及關(guān)稅問題(tí)。其次，假(jiǎ)設“中歐投資協(xié)定”對不鏽鋼出口有一定(dìng)利好(hǎo)，主要(yào)系不鏽鋼的相關制(zhì)成品，比如家(jiā)電等等(děng)。但初步(bù)談(tán)判完(wán)成，協(xié)議需進一(yī)步轉化成法律條文，并經(jīng)過歐(ōu)洲議會批(pī)準後才可(kě)生效。該過(guò)程預計将(jiāng)在2021年下半(bàn)年才可(kě)開(kāi)始。

　　二、從歐洲開(kāi)放領(lǐng)域(yù)來看，“中歐投資協定”對中國不(bú)鏽(xiù)鋼企(qǐ)業走出去(qù)有何(hé)影響(xiǎng)？

　　從相關資(zī)料顯示(shì)來看，中歐投(tóu)資(zī)協定将(jiāng)鎖(suǒ)定現有的中(zhōng)國對歐投資市(shì)場準入權，同時(shí)确保開(kāi)放歐洲(zhōu)能源、農業、漁業(yè)、視聽、公共服務(wù)等敏感領(lǐng)域。此外，根(gēn)據(jù)《服務貿(mào)易總(zǒng)協(xié)定》（gats），歐盟(méng)将在(zài)很大程度上(shàng)開(kāi)放服務行(háng)業。

　　站在中國立(lì)場，歐洲(zhōu)開(kāi)放領(lǐng)域，為中(zhōng)國投資(zī)者提供了更大(dà)的進入(rù)歐盟能(néng)源批發零(líng)售市場、可再生(shēng)能源(yuán)市場等領(lǐng)域的機會(huì)，帶動中國(guó)新能(néng)源、汽車等(děng)相關(guān)産業的出(chū)口貿易發(fā)展。對(duì)于中(zhōng)國投資者(zhě)，該協(xié)議(yì)達成還(hái)意(yì)味(wèi)着在歐盟(méng)有更多潛(qián)在的(de)投資機會(huì)，包括(kuò)中國有競争優勢的建(jiàn)築産業(yè)、電(diàn)信産業等等(děng)，屆時或許會拉(lā)動國内不鏽鋼(gāng)需求。

　　但是從不(bú)鏽鋼(gāng)企業角度(dù)而(ér)言，國内不鏽(xiù)鋼廠(chǎng)走(zǒu)出去在(zài)歐盟建廠(chǎng)的可(kě)能性(xìng)微乎(hū)其微。由于(yú)歐洲(zhōu)的廢鋼積累量比較(jiào)大，中(zhōng)國不(bú)鏽鋼(gāng)鋼廠走(zǒu)出(chū)去投(tóu)資建設(shè)，在不鏽(xiù)鋼冶(yě)煉(liàn)成本上(shàng)可能會享有一(yī)些優勢(shì)。但是目(mù)前歐(ōu)洲的不鏽(xiù)鋼鋼廠全部使用電爐(lú)生(shēng)産，若(ruò)去歐洲建廠，整(zhěng)體成本過于高(gāo)昂。其(qí)次，從(cóng)需求(qiú)角度(dù)來(lái)講，歐洲(zhōu)本土(tǔ)不(bú)鏽(xiù)鋼生(shēng)産逐(zhú)年下降，加(jiā)之由于新(xīn)冠疫(yì)情的影響(xiǎng)，歐洲經濟陷入(rù)低迷(mí)，需求端維持弱(ruò)勢。因(yīn)此，國(guó)内不(bú)鏽鋼廠去歐洲(zhōu)建設(shè)工廠的可能性，總體而言(yán)不存在。

　　三、從中國開(kāi)放領域來(lái)看，“中歐投(tóu)資協(xié)定”對國(guó)内(nèi)的不(bú)鏽鋼企業(yè)有何(hé)影響(xiǎng)？

　　在談(tán)判中(zhōng)，中(zhōng)國答應進一(yī)步開放(fàng)的(de)領域(yù)包括制(zhì)造(zào)業、汽(qì)車、金融服務業(yè)、醫療健康、通訊(xùn)/雲服務、計算機(jī)服務、國際(jì)海運、航空運輸、商業(yè)服務、環境(jìng)服務(wù)等。目(mù)前，大約一(yī)半的歐盟(méng)對華(huá)直接(jiē)投資集中(zhōng)在制造業領域(yù)，如運輸(shū)和電信(xìn)設備、化學品、健(jiàn)康設備等等。而(ér)汽車領域方面(miàn)，中國(guó)同意(yì)逐步(bù)取消(xiāo)合資企業(yè)要求，承諾(nuò)新能(néng)源汽車的(de)市場(chǎng)準入(rù)。此外，中國(guó)同意取消金融(róng)服務(wù)業(yè)及醫療(liáo)健康(kāng)領域中部分行(háng)業(yè)的合資(zī)要求。

　　站在(zài)歐盟的立場，歐(ōu)盟在(zài)中國的(de)汽車、消(xiāo)費品、生物醫藥(yào)、金融服(fú)務(wù)和醫(yī)療衛生等衆多(duō)領域出現(xiàn)了新的機(jī)遇(yù)，但更多(duō)的可能是技術領域(yù)内的輸出(chū)，對不鏽鋼行業(yè)生産(chǎn)的影(yǐng)響基(jī)本沒(méi)有。

　　綜上所(suǒ)述，總(zǒng)體(tǐ)而言，“中(zhōng)歐投(tóu)資(zī)協定”對(duì)不鏽(xiù)鋼及不鏽鋼企業(yè)本(běn)身并(bìng)沒有什麼利好(hǎo)的影響，但對不鏽鋼制成(chéng)品的(de)出口(kǒu)可(kě)能會(huì)是(shì)利好。