ondecember30,2020,theleadersofchinaandtheeujointlyannouncedthecompletionoftheeu-chinacomprehensiveagreementoninvestment,whichisaframeworkagreementdesignedtoreplacetheexistingbilateralinvestmenttreatiesbetweenchinaandeumemberstatesandbuildunitychina-eubilateralinvestmentsystem.

　　thisnegotiationhasgonethrough35roundsofnegotiationsandlastedformorethan7years.thenegotiationwasoncestalledandacceleratedinthepastoneandahalfyears.thenegotiationwasfinallycompletedattheendof2020,whichisalsoaftertheregionalcomprehensiveeconomicpartnershipagreement(rcep).,chinahascompletedanothermajoropening-upmeasure,whichisanothersignificantvictoryofmultilateralisminthecourseofyearsofanti-globalization.

　　so,willthecompletionofthe"china-euinvestmentagreement"negotiationshaveanimpactonthestainlesssteelindustry?

　　1.ifthechina-euinvestmentagreementisreached,willtheeustillhavetariffbarrierstochina?

　　inrecentyears,duetotheeu'scontinuedanti-dumpingofstainlesssteelexportsfrommainlandchina,theeucurrentlyimposesataxrateofmorethan20%onstainlesssteelfrommainlandchina.then,ifthechina-euinvestmentagreementisreached,willtheeustillhavetariffbarriersagainstchina?

　　thefirstthingtobeclearisthatthechina-euinvestmentagreementdoesnotinvolvetariffissues.secondly,itisassumedthatthe"china-europeinvestmentagreement"hascertainbenefitsforstainlesssteelexports,mainlyrelatedtostainlesssteelproducts,suchashouseholdappliances.however,afterthepreliminarynegotiationsarecompleted,theagreementneedstobefurthertransformedintolegalprovisions,whichcanonlycomeintoforceafterapprovalbytheeuropeanparliament.theprocessisexpectedtostartinthesecondhalfof2021.

　　2.fromtheperspectiveofeuropeanopenareas,whatimpactdoesthe"china-euinvestmentagreement"haveonchinesestainlesssteelcompaniesgoingglobal?

　　accordingtorelevantinformation,thechina-euinvestmentagreementwilllockintheexistingchineseinvestmentmarketaccessrightsineurope,whileensuringtheopeningofsensitiveareassuchasenergy,agriculture,fishery,audio-visual,andpublicservicesineurope.inaddition,accordingtothe"generalagreementontradeinservices"(gats),theeuwillopenuptheserviceindustrytoalargeextent.

　　fromchina'sstandpoint,theeuropeanopenfieldprovideschineseinvestorswithgreateropportunitiestoentertheeuenergywholesaleandretailmarket,renewableenergymarketandotherfields,andpromotethedevelopmentofchina'snewenergy,automobileandotherrelatedindustries.forchineseinvestors,theagreementalsomeansthattherearemorepotentialinvestmentopportunitiesintheeu,includingchina'scompetitiveconstructionindustry,telecommunicationsindustry,etc.,whichmaystimulatedomesticdemandforstainlesssteel.

　　however,fromtheperspectiveofstainlesssteelcompanies,thepossibilityofdomesticstainlesssteelplantsgoingoutandestablishingplantsintheeuisslim.duetotherelativelylargeaccumulationofscrapsteelineurope,chinesestainlesssteelmillsmayenjoysomeadvantagesinthecostofstainlesssteelsmeltingwhentheygooutandinvestinconstruction.however,allstainlesssteelmillsineuropecurrentlyuseelectricfurnacesforproduction.ifyougotoeuropetobuildaplant,theoverallcostistoohigh.secondly,fromademandperspective,europeanstainlesssteelproductionhasbeendecliningyearbyyear.inaddition,duetotheimpactofthenewcrownepidemic,theeuropeaneconomyhasfallenintoadownturn,andthedemandsidehasremainedweak.therefore,thepossibilityofdomesticstainlesssteelplantsgoingtoeuropetobuildfactoriesgenerallydoesnotexist.

　　3.fromtheperspectiveofchina'sopenfields,whatimpactdoesthe"china-euinvestmentagreement"haveondomesticstainlesssteelcompanies?

　　duringthenegotiations,theareasthatchinapromisedtofurtheropenincludemanufacturing,automobiles,financialservices,healthcare,communications/cloudservices,computerservices,internationalshipping,airtransportation,businessservices,environmentalservices,etc.atpresent,abouthalfofeu'sdirectinvestmentinchinaisconcentratedinthemanufacturingsector,suchastransportationandtelecommunicationsequipment,chemicals,healthequipment,andsoon.intheautomotivesector,chinaagreedtograduallycanceltherequirementsforjointventuresandpromisedmarketaccessfornewenergyvehicles.inaddition,chinaagreedtoabolishjointventurerequirementsforcertainindustriesinthefinancialservicesandhealthcaresectors.

　　fromthestandpointoftheeuropeanunion,theeuropeanunionhasnewopportunitiesinchina’sautomotive,consumerproducts,biomedicine,financialservices,andmedicalandhealthsectors,butmorelikelyitistheoutputinthetechnicalfield,whichhasabasicimpactontheproductionofthestainlesssteelindustry.no.

　　insummary,ingeneral,the"china-europeinvestmentagreement"doesnothaveanypositiveimpactonstainlesssteelandstainlesssteelcompaniesthemselves,butitmaybepositivefortheexportofstainlesssteelproducts.

　　中歐(ōu)投資協定(dìng)，對不(bú)鏽鋼行業(yè)影響幾(jǐ)何

　　2020年12月(yuè)30日，中(zhōng)歐領導(dǎo)人共同宣布完成中歐全(quán)面(miàn)投資(zī)協議(yì)(eu-chinacomprehensiveagreementoninvestment），這是一個框(kuàng)架(jià)協議，旨在(zài)取代中國和(hé)歐(ōu)盟成員國現有(yǒu)的雙邊投資條(tiáo)約，構(gòu)建統一的中歐雙邊投資(zī)制度。

　　這一談判經曆了35輪磋商，前後持(chí)續超過7年，談(tán)判曾一度(dù)停(tíng)滞(zhì)，近一年半内有所加快，終于在2020年年底完成談(tán)判，這也是(shì)繼區域全(quán)面經(jīng)濟夥伴關系協(xié)定（rcep）之(zhī)後，中國(guó)完(wán)成的另(lìng)一個重(zhòng)大對外(wài)開放舉措，也(yě)是在(zài)多年(nián)的逆(nì)全球化進(jìn)程中，多邊(biān)主義(yì)取得(dé)的又一次(cì)意義(yì)重大的勝(shèng)利。

　　那(nà)麼，“中歐投(tóu)資(zī)協定”談判的(de)完成(chéng)，對不(bú)鏽鋼行業會有(yǒu)影響(xiǎng)嗎？

　　一、如果(guǒ)“中歐(ōu)投資(zī)協定”達成(chéng)，歐(ōu)盟對(duì)中(zhōng)國還(hái)會有關稅壁(bì)壘(lěi)麼？

　　近年來，由于(yú)歐盟對中國大(dà)陸的(de)不(bú)鏽鋼出(chū)口持續的反傾(qīng)銷，目(mù)前歐盟對(duì)中國(guó)大陸不鏽(xiù)鋼的征收(shōu)稅率(lǜ)高達20%以上，那麼(me)，如(rú)果“中歐(ōu)投資(zī)協定(dìng)”達成(chéng)，歐(ōu)盟(méng)對中國(guó)還(hái)會有關稅(shuì)壁壘麼？

　　首先需要明确的是，“中歐投資協(xié)定”并不涉(shè)及關(guān)稅問(wèn)題。其次，假設“中歐(ōu)投(tóu)資協(xié)定”對(duì)不鏽鋼出(chū)口有(yǒu)一定利好，主要系不鏽鋼的相關制(zhì)成品(pǐn)，比如家(jiā)電等等(děng)。但初步談判完(wán)成，協議需進一(yī)步轉化成(chéng)法律(lǜ)條文，并經(jīng)過歐洲議會批(pī)準後才可生(shēng)效。該過(guò)程預(yù)計将在2021年下半年才可(kě)開(kāi)始。

　　二、從歐(ōu)洲開放領域來看，“中(zhōng)歐投資協(xié)定”對中國(guó)不鏽(xiù)鋼企(qǐ)業走出去(qù)有何(hé)影響(xiǎng)？

　　從相(xiàng)關資(zī)料顯示來(lái)看，中歐投資協定将(jiāng)鎖定現有的中(zhōng)國對(duì)歐投資市場準入(rù)權(quán)，同時(shí)确保開放歐洲能源、農業、漁業、視聽(tīng)、公共(gòng)服務(wù)等敏感領域。此外，根(gēn)據《服(fú)務貿(mào)易總協定》（gats），歐盟(méng)将在(zài)很大(dà)程度上開放服務行(háng)業。

　　站在中國(guó)立(lì)場，歐洲(zhōu)開放領域，為中(zhōng)國投資(zī)者提(tí)供(gòng)了更大的進(jìn)入歐盟能(néng)源批發零售市場、可(kě)再(zài)生能源(yuán)市場(chǎng)等領(lǐng)域的機會(huì)，帶(dài)動中國(guó)新能源、汽(qì)車等相關(guān)産業的出(chū)口貿易發(fā)展。對(duì)于中(zhōng)國投資者，該協(xié)議(yì)達成還意味着在(zài)歐盟(méng)有更多潛在的(de)投資機會(huì)，包括中國(guó)有(yǒu)競争優勢的(de)建(jiàn)築産業(yè)、電信産(chǎn)業(yè)等等(děng)，屆時或許會拉動國内不(bú)鏽鋼(gāng)需求。

　　但是從不鏽鋼企業(yè)角度而言(yán)，國内(nèi)不鏽(xiù)鋼廠走出去在歐盟(méng)建廠的可(kě)能性微乎(hū)其微。由于(yú)歐(ōu)洲的廢(fèi)鋼積(jī)累量比較(jiào)大，中國不鏽鋼鋼廠走出(chū)去投(tóu)資建(jiàn)設，在不鏽(xiù)鋼冶煉成(chéng)本上(shàng)可能(néng)會(huì)享(xiǎng)有一(yī)些優勢。但是目前歐洲(zhōu)的(de)不鏽鋼鋼廠(chǎng)全部使用電爐生(shēng)産，若(ruò)去歐洲建廠，整(zhěng)體成本過于(yú)高昂。其(qí)次(cì)，從(cóng)需求角度來講(jiǎng)，歐洲(zhōu)本土(tǔ)不鏽鋼生(shēng)産逐(zhú)年下降，加(jiā)之由于新(xīn)冠疫(yì)情的影響(xiǎng)，歐洲(zhōu)經濟陷入低迷(mí)，需求(qiú)端維持弱(ruò)勢。因此，國(guó)内不(bú)鏽鋼(gāng)廠(chǎng)去歐洲建設工廠(chǎng)的可(kě)能性，總(zǒng)體而言(yán)不存(cún)在。

　　三、從中(zhōng)國開放(fàng)領域來(lái)看，“中歐投(tóu)資協(xié)定”對(duì)國(guó)内(nèi)的不(bú)鏽鋼企業(yè)有何影響(xiǎng)？

　　在(zài)談判中(zhōng)，中國答應進一(yī)步開放的領域(yù)包括制造(zào)業、汽車、金(jīn)融(róng)服務業(yè)、醫療健康(kāng)、通訊(xùn)/雲服(fú)務、計(jì)算機(jī)服務(wù)、國際海運(yùn)、航空運輸、商業(yè)服務(wù)、環(huán)境(jìng)服務(wù)等。目(mù)前(qián)，大約一半的歐盟(méng)對華直接投資(zī)集中(zhōng)在制造業(yè)領域，如運輸和電信(xìn)設備(bèi)、化學(xué)品、健康設備(bèi)等(děng)等。而(ér)汽車(chē)領域方面(miàn)，中國同意逐步(bù)取消合資(zī)企業(yè)要求(qiú)，承諾新能源汽車的市場(chǎng)準入(rù)。此外(wài)，中國(guó)同意取消(xiāo)金融(róng)服務(wù)業及醫療(liáo)健康(kāng)領域(yù)中部分行業的合資(zī)要求。

　　站(zhàn)在(zài)歐盟的立場，歐盟在中國(guó)的汽車、消費品(pǐn)、生(shēng)物醫藥、金融服務和醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生等衆多(duō)領域出現(xiàn)了新(xīn)的機遇，但(dàn)更多(duō)的可能是技術(shù)領(lǐng)域(yù)内的輸出(chū)，對不鏽鋼(gāng)行業(yè)生産(chǎn)的影(yǐng)響基(jī)本沒有。

　　綜上所述，總(zǒng)體而言，“中(zhōng)歐投資協定”對(duì)不鏽鋼及不(bú)鏽(xiù)鋼企業本(běn)身并(bìng)沒有什(shí)麼利好(hǎo)的影響，但對不(bú)鏽(xiù)鋼(gāng)制成品的(de)出口可能會(huì)是利好(hǎo)。